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Now, this doesn’t mean that there’s an 8.7% chance of a COVID spreader showing up at your Thanksgiving party. It’s entirely possible that two COVID spreaders show up at one party, which would deny there being a COVID spreader at another party. And from a perspective of spread, it’s certainly better for two COVID spreaders to be at a single gathering than for two gatherings to have one spreader each. And COVID spreaders aren’t randomly distributed; in fact, I would say that if one person shows up with COVID, it’s more likely that there are multiple people with COVID because they’re all sharing households and social circles.

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So let’s handwave a bit and say that if there’s one person spreading COVID at a gathering, then on average there are actually two COVID spreaders at that gathering. Yeah, this really sucks. I am originally from MS and my father is 71 years old and I told him that I was not coming for Thanksgiving over a month ago. You could tell it really bothered him but I just don’t see the point in traveling during all of this and putting others or myself at risk. I really hate it because I know that I won’t get to spend many more w him bc of his age but I would rather this one not be my last either. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this vaccine is a winner!!!!

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