Now, this doesn’t mean that there’s an 8.7% chance of a COVID spreader showing up at your Thanksgiving party. It’s entirely possible that two COVID spreaders show up at one party, which would deny there being a COVID spreader at another party. And from a perspective of spread, it’s certainly better for two COVID spreaders to be at a single gathering than for two gatherings to have one spreader each. And COVID spreaders aren’t randomly distributed; in fact, I would say that if one person shows up with COVID, it’s more likely that there are multiple people with COVID because they’re all sharing households and social circles.
So let’s handwave a bit and say that if there’s one person spreading COVID at a gathering, then on average there are actually two COVID spreaders at that gathering. Yeah, this really sucks. I am originally from MS and my father is 71 years old and I told him that I was not coming for Thanksgiving over a month ago. You could tell it really bothered him but I just don’t see the point in traveling during all of this and putting others or myself at risk. I really hate it because I know that I won’t get to spend many more w him bc of his age but I would rather this one not be my last either. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this vaccine is a winner!!!!
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