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Arizona, being a normally red state with heavy mail-in voting already. It’s fair to predict mail-ins would favor trump. But they predict that most day off and drop off ballots will lean blue due to this reason. Considering the remaining votes are mostly in the two most urban counties (which statistically lean blue), they predict trump will gain some votes from mail-ins, but not enough to overcome the lead Biden currently has in addition to the same-day voters who most likely were blue.

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And all I said was I haven’t crunched all the statistics myself, but rough estimates had Trump at 60% with the new batch, which should have been favoring Biden. Not enough data, but had a gut feeling. Everyone started railing at me for “using feelings over math and science”. Like bruh. I live here. There are a lot of solidly red people here.

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