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In America, we have about 925,000 hospital beds and about 160,000 ventilators. And most of them are already being used for other patients with other diseases. I’m not sure what the number of free hospital beds and respirators are, but its a much smaller number than 925k and 160k.in Italy where the hospitals are overwhelmed, they are doing triage. They are basically turning away anyone over the age of 70 or with comorbid conditions so they can focus on saving younger and healthier people.

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The rate of new case diagnoses will slow down, one incubation-period after the quarantine starts. The deaths will slow down, a few weeks after that. If we could 100% quarantine, with perfect compliance, the whole thing could be over just a couple weeks after that. If the national leadership does anything less, the epidemic could continue indefinitely. Because of repeated failures of national leadership, it has already continued a lot longer than was really necessary.