What the fivethirtyeight model doesn’t account for is what if key Bernie districts’ results are shelved for an extended period (like Polk county which confirms they’ve finished auditing their results.
but have not had their district reported yet, and were very pro Bernie) so the results look like Buttigieg is winning until too close to NH to have a real impact when the truth comes out.
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Yep. I see lots of people getting very upset about his pseudo-victory speech before the official results. I immediately took it as him admitting the very weak position he’s in – it was a risky YOLO move, not one of strength. Nationally, he’s on the brink of tipping into becoming irrelevant in the overall race.
Because Iowa is more about the narrative than the delegates? FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Bernie an 89% chance to win NH and Pete a 4% chance IF Bernie is the clear winner in Iowa.
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Big donors will stop giving money to their invested candidates if they’re not winning, Bloomberg obviously doesn’t need to show any progress or wins with all of his money. It’ll be interesting to see how much of an impact his money alone can make to his campaign.
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It seems like most of the Klobuchar supporters went to Pete instead of Biden when she wasn’t viable. It’ll be curious if that ends up being the case in other states, especially if she drops out before.
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A win here is big from a fundraising perspective and having a win behind you boded well for the next state. People love a winner which will help to go into New Hampshire. It’s not everything but it’s certainly good for him.
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And Biden should take a hit, right? As of last night, Bernie is trailing Biden 4.5 points. I’m hoping that the combined impact of Iowa for different candidates will significantly close that gap.
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I think virtually all the Democratic candidates believe that. It doesn’t make them hypocritical to try to win in the system that they have to for the time being. A general election candidate can support moving to national popular vote but they’re still going to try to win the electoral college -i.e. actually win – until the system is changed.
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Also, more people coming out and voting for a candidate that they are energized by means increased voter turnout. Increased voter turnout makes it harder for the Russiapublicans to cheat.
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I hadn’t seen the Des Moines precinct 80 one, and that does look strange. Though we don’t have the total vote count, I guess it is possible that it could end up in an exact tie? Because the vote count used isn’t the vote count for the viable candidates, but the total initial one
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The coin flip is fucking absurd. Dude doesn’t understand how coin flips work and needs to be walked through it as he’s doing it? Dude, you flip the coin and you can even let it land on the ground.
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Ah, thanks a lot for this explanation. Really helps put this in perspective. I don’t think a lot of people know how this works and I’m guessing it’s a failure of the American electoral system to explain how this electoral process works.
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Before the Sanders’ campaign forced reforms on Iowa back in 2016 to force the popular vote to be revealed, we would only know who won more delegates and such. Now we know more people actually preferred Bernie.
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At that point, the officials decide who is viable – ie, have over 15% of the vote. All the non-viable candidates are removed, letting their voters either leave or join up with one of the viable ones.
After that process is done, they take another vote count, and portion out the delegates based on taking. If there’s a tie, that’s where the coinflips come into play.
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Letting land and the only land vote was literally written into the Constitution, I’m not exactly surprised that legacy remains strongly ingrained in the American political psyche when the country wasn’t even allowing women to vote until 1920. That’s a century ago this August.
You mean favoring the realm that was traditionally exclusively white, male land/property owners over the more diverse urban centers? What an odd coincidence!
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Historically speaking, the Iowa caucus used to only release the State Delegate Equivalent count, and that was used to decide the winner. Those state delegates are a bit like a mounting series of rounding errors, and so they don’t quite match the popular vote.
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This year, they were convinced/made to have more actual information than just the raw delegates, and for that it’s also releasing first pass vote totals and the final popular vote.
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